Climatological Increased Precipitation from July to August in the Western North Pacific Region Simulated by CMIP6 Models

Abstract

In this study, the climatological precipitation increase from July to August over the western North Pacific (WNP) region was investigated through observations and simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), atmospheric model simulations and historical experiments. Firstly, observational analysis showed that the precipitation increase is associated with a decrease in the local sea surface temperature (SST), indicating that the precipitation increase is not driven by the change in SST. In addition, the pattern of precipitation increase is similar to the vertical motion change at 500-hPa, suggesting that the precipitation increase is related to the circulation change. Moisture budget analysis further confirmed this relation. In addition to the observational analysis, the outputs from 26 CMIP6 models were further evaluated. Compared with atmospheric model simulations, air–sea coupled models largely improve the simulation of the climatological precipitation increase from July to August. Furthermore, model simulations confirmed that the bias in the precipitation increase is intimately associated with the circulation change bias. Thus, two factors are responsible for the bias of the precipitation increase from July to August in climate models: air–sea coupling processes and the performance in vertical motion change.