Climatological and structural differences between wet and dry troughs over southern Africa in the early summer

Abstract

Differences in the convective potential of troughs passing over the plateau of southern Africa in the early summer are assessed using operational synoptic weather data and radiosonde time-height sections. Wet and dry trough cases are chosen on the basis of the intensity and distribution of rainfall, sharp thermodynamic changes across the plateau and the passage of a geopotential wave. Composite differences are computed and indicate a high-low geopotential anomaly in the east-west direction, and a threefold increase in precipi-table water from 15 mm in dry cases to 28 mm in wet cases. The 500 hPa structure obtained by differencing wet and dry composites is dominated by low geopotentials and cyclonic vorticity over the plateau near 25°S, 25°E, and high geopotentials and anticyclonic vorticity to the south over the oceans near 40°S, 30°E. The dipole anomaly suggests a diffluent tilted baroclinic wave in the subtropical jet stream in convective cases. A double jet streak structure in the wet events enhances upper divergence which contributes to widespread uplift in the mid-troposphere. A case study comparison highlights the importance of pre-frontal moist influx, the kinematic trigger and thermodynamic instability.