Abstract
The present study documents the long-term trends in the temperature and precipitation of a poorly represented region, the Sikkim, eastern Himalaya using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test and the Sen’s slope estimator. Additionally, the normal distribution curves and Cusum charts have been used to identify the shifts in extreme events and to detect the points of change in the climatic data series for robust analysis. The minimum temperatures recorded a positive trend in Gangtok (0.036 ˚C year−1 from 1961 to 2017) as well as in Tadong (0.065 ˚C year−1 from 1981 to 2010) stations, while the maximum temperatures showed no trend in Tadong station from 1981 to 2010 which is consistent with the trend in Gangtok station for the overlapped period. However, it was negative for the overall assessed period (− 0.027 ˚C year−1 from 1961 to 2017) in Gangtok. The average temperatures in Gangtok recorded no trend whereas a positive trend (0.035 ˚C year−1 from 1981 to 2010) was observed at Tadong station. A similar positive trend in the average temperatures has been detected at Gangtok also for the overlapped period. Accelerated warming was noticed during the last two decades with an increase in the probability of extreme events of temperatures (minimum, maximum, average) at the higher end. Precipitation was found to be more variable across the observed period and suggested no trend in the study area.
Highlights
The present study documents the long-term trends in the temperature and precipitation of a poorly represented region, the Sikkim, eastern Himalaya using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test and the Sen’s slope estimator
Sikkim Himalaya, a part of the eastern Himalaya, which is influenced by the tri-junction of climatic systems largely dominated by the SW monsoon and receive limited winter rain from the Mediterranean westerly, and North-east monsoon, provides a vantage location to understand the complex responses of the climatic changes
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) carries out occasional quality checks to make the data error-free to ensure the quality before releasing it in the public d omain[23]
Summary
The present study documents the long-term trends in the temperature and precipitation of a poorly represented region, the Sikkim, eastern Himalaya using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test and the Sen’s slope estimator. Sharma and Shrestha (2016) analyzed the perceptions on climate change among people of Sikkim and tried to validate the results with trends of instrumental data of temperature and precipitation between 1978 and 200918. They did not provide any information about the level of understanding of respondents regarding climate and weather systems. The present study, focuses on Sikkim Himalaya to fill the gaps in understanding of the climatic changes in detail and its impact on the region. The study investigates the behavior of monthly extreme events of temperature and precipitation and attempts to pin-point the year of change in the trend of climatic data
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