Abstract
Stipa breviflora, a dominant species of Chinese temperate grassland, is vulnerable to climate change. A quantitative description of the changes in the geographic distribution of S. breviflora under climate change can provide a reference for potential changes in Chinese temperate grassland and the necessary countermeasures to cope with climate change. In this study, the relationship between the geographic distribution of S. breviflora and the climate, and its inter-decadal change in geographic distribution and climatic suitability from 1961 to 2040 were investigated. The results showed that S. breviflora’s geographic distribution could be simulated very well by the MaxEnt model, and its climatic suitability could be divided into four levels—most suitable, medium suitable, less suitable, and unsuitable areas—based on its existence probability from the MaxEnt model. In the past 50 years, the total climate-suitable area for S. breviflora’s potential geographical distribution exhibited an obvious increase and a trend of northward expansion, which was larger than the current distribution area. The total climate-suitable area would increase by about 6.7% and decrease by 11.5% from 2011–2040 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively; however, the most suitable area increased and moved to western areas of Tibet, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The results revealed that the distribution area of S. breviflora still has greater potential for expansion.
Highlights
Climate is the main factor that determines the type of vegetation and the distribution of species
Around the changes in geographical distribution of vegetation in China under the background of climate change and the need for policy formulation on climate change, the objectives of this study were (1) to quantitatively reveal the main climatic factors that determine the geographical distribution of S. breviflora based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model; (2) to construct the relationship between the potential geographical distribution and climate factors and investigate the potential geographical distribution of S. breviflora and its climatic suitability in China; and (3) to evaluate the inter-decadal change in the potential geographic distribution of S. breviflora in China from 1961 to 2040
MaxEnt was able to study the relationships between the geographic distributions of S. breviflora and the climate
Summary
Climate is the main factor that determines the type of vegetation and the distribution of species. The distribution of vegetation and species within a certain geographical area is a reflection and sign of a specific climate, which is a manifestation of the biodiversity in this region. Global climate change caused by modern human activities is taking place. Severe climate change will have a serious impact on vegetation—climate relationships, significantly affecting the large-scale pattern of plant distribution [2,3,4,5,6]. For regional plants in certain ecological transition zones, the environmental conditions are special, and the impact of climate change will be more intuitive and serious. It is of great significance to understand the changes in the geographical distribution of dominant plants and to develop scientific countermeasures to deal with climate change
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
