Climatic Suitability for Cocoa Production in Nigeria

Abstract

Cocoa is one of the major cash crops that contribute more to the gross domestic product (GDP) of Nigeria and West Africa as a whole. Its contribution to the economic development of Africa and the world in general cannot be over emphasized. However, it has been discovered that cocoa is susceptible to changes in climatic parameters which has made it difficult to be grown in every part of the country, hence, the need to underscore the areas that are climatically suitable for the production of cocoa in Nigeria. This study was carried out to determine the climatic suitability pattern for the production of cocoa in Nigeria. A series of multi-year climate and crop yield simulations were performed for the present day (1976-2005), Mid-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) under RCP 4.5 emission scenario using Fuzzy Logic Method (FLM) in ArcGIS (10.4.1). The results showed that some regions that are climatically suitable for cocoa production in the present day have not been explored. The regions with moderately suitability was projected to decrease the year 2050 while regions with marginally suitable, will increase by the year 2050. The remaining land that are not suitable will also decrease by the year 2050. The very suitable region was projected to increase by the year 2050 and by 2100. Also, a land area suitable and moderately suitable for cocoa production was projected to increase in land mass by the year 2050 and 2100. However, the region with marginally suitability will decrease by 2050 and year 2100. Meanwhile, the area that is not suitable by 2050 will increase by the year 2100. Which means there is a decrease in climatic suitability of cocoa by 2100 as projected.