Climatic phenomenon and meteorological variables influencing the dengue fever incidence in Colombian South Pacific region: Modeling study

Abstract

Background: Dengue fever is a viral disease transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, whose propagation has spread rapidly throughout the world. There is growing evidence that outbreaks of dengue fever are becoming more frequent and appear to be strongly correlated with the phenomenon of the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Materials and Methods: Cases of dengue fever that were registered in the Department of Cauca (2006–2015) by the National System for Public Health Surveillance were included in the study. Climate periods were classified according to the National Oceanographic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) per month. Meteorological data (precipitation and temperature) were obtained from the National Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology, and Environmental Studies of Colombia (IDEAM). A multivariate linear regression model was used to determine the relationship between temperature, precipitation, and cases of dengue fever. Results: During the period from January 2006 to December 2015, a total of 4464 dengue cases were reported. The year with higher outbreak was 2010, where unusually high temperatures were recorded. According to the predictive model, 2000 mm of rain is required to increase dengue fever in one case per month. In addition, the increases of temperature by 2°C cause the rise of one case of dengue. Conclusion: Dengue cases increased during the period of study with higher presence during the months with El Nino phase. The mean temperature had a higher influence than precipitation on dengue cases. The first semester of the year is characterized by high incidence of dengue cases, especially April.