Climatic limitations of nearly endangered Juniperus rigida populations at their range edges in semiarid China

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The treat of climate warming is expected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts and significantly affect tree growth and distribution ranges, particularly in regions without monsoons. The distribution limits of tree species are highly susceptible to climate change. A deeper understanding of how tree species respond to climate across their distribution ranges is crucial for accurately predicting forest dynamics in the face of climate warming. Using tree ring width data from 586 trees at 19 sites spanning the northernmost and southernmost limits of Juniperus rigida (near-threatened, IUCN: NT), we assessed the growth responses of J. rigida to climate at different distribution range limits. We observed significant differences in tree-growth variability between the southern and northern populations of J. rigida, characterized by an increasing growth trend at the southern range limit, but a decreasing trend at the northern limit since 1996. Moreover, tree growth at their northern limit was hindered by high temperatures and SPEI during summer months, whereas it was constrained by low temperatures in March and precipitation in June at the southern limit. Particularly noteworthy is the increased sensitivity of growth to SPEI and precipitation in recent decades (1996–2018) compared to previous decades (1961–1995), particularly at their northern distribution edge. We therefore conclude that the growth of J. rigida trees at the southern limit could benefit from climate warming, while increasing warming and drought could limit tree growth or even cause tree mortality at the northern range limits. These findings may serve as an early warning for the growth and survival of J. rigida trees in open forests at their northern distribution edges in the face of future climate warming.