CLIMATIC INDICATOR ANALYSIS OF BLOOM TIME FOR SOUR CHERRIES

Abstract

County Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg produces more than the half of the total sour cherry crop in Hungary. Successful production, i.e., yield, depends largely on weather conditions. Most attention should be paid to the weather during bloom, which affects both fruit quality as well as quantity. To predict yields, characterisation of the most important weather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research and Extension Service for Fruit Growing at Ujfeherto Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period 1984-2005, i.e., daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures (°C), precipitation (mm), and phenological records for the sour cherry varieties ‘Ujfehertoi furtos’, ‘Kantorjanosi’ and ‘Debreceni bőtermő’. Data of 7 indicators have been analyzed: 1) number of frosty days, 2) the absolute minimum temperatures, 3) means of minimum temperatures, 4) number of days when daily means were above 10°C, 5) means of maximum temperatures, 6) number of days without precipitation, and 7) number of days when precipitation was more than 5 mm. Not only were the changes from 1984 to 2005 documented, but estimates were attempted for changes expected during future decades as well. A predictive model to estimate temperature and precipitation values for 2020-2051 suggests that spring frost events will be increasingly rare, but rain events will increase during bloom. The indicators associated with certain risky events may facilitate prediction of future recommendations to prevent crop damage.