Climatic controls on distribution of Fagus crenata forests in Japan

Abstract

Abstract We used classification tree analysis to develop a climate-based distribution model for Fagus crenata forests in Japan. Four climatic variables judged likely to affect the distribution of the species (summer and winter precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month and Kira's warmth index) were chosen as independent variables for the model. Latitudinal and longitudinal information was also used to examine effects of spatial autocorrelation on the model. The climatic factors associated with the distribution of the forests were analysed using a classification tree to devise prediction rules. Predicted areas of high probability for forest occurrence lay mainly on the Sea of Japan side of northern Honshu and southern Hokkaido. This is consistent with actual forest distribution. Some areas with high predicted probabilities of F. crenata forest occurrence were beyond the current natural northern range limits of these forests. Since these areas were widely scattered, it was assumed that the spec...