Abstract
Mountains are strongly seasonal habitats, which require special adaptations in wildlife species living on them. Population dynamics of mountain ungulates are largely determined by the availability of rich food resources to sustain lactation and weaning during summer. Increases of temperature affect plant phenology and nutritional quality. Cold-adapted plants occurring at lower elevations will shift to higher ones, if available. We predicted what could happen to populations of mountain ungulates based on how climate change could alter the distribution pattern and quality of high-elevation vegetation, using the “clover community-Apennine chamois Rupicapra pyrenaica ornata” system. From 1970 to 2014, increasing spring temperatures (2 °C) in our study area led to an earlier (25 days) onset of green-up in Alpine grasslands between 1700 and 2000 m, but not higher up. For 1970–2070, we have projected trends of juvenile winter survival of chamois, by simulating trajectories of spring temperatures and occurrence of clover, through models depicting four different scenarios. All scenarios have suggested a decline of Apennine chamois in its historical core range, during the next 50 years, from about 28% to near-extinction at about 95%. The negative consequences of climate changes presently occurring at lower elevations will shift to higher ones in the future. Their effects will vary with the species-specific ecological and behavioural flexibility of mountain ungulates, as well as with availability of climate refugia. However, global shifts in distributional ranges and local decreases or extinctions should be expected, calling for farsighted measures of adaptive management of mountain-dwelling herbivores.
Highlights
Climate changes are not a new event; for example, over 50 climate changes occurred during the Pleistocene and the Holocene (Lourens 2004; Wanner et al 2015), with most of them lasting a minimum of several hundred years (Crawford 2014)
Species living in extreme conditions, e.g. in Polar regions and deserts, may find it difficult to quickly change their adaptations developed over millions of years or to find suitable refuge areas (Parmesan 2006, for a review)
Species adapted to high-elevation habitats are sensitive to climatic changes, in some cases leading to local extinctions (Nogués-Bravo et al 2007; Parmesan 2006)
Summary
Climate changes are not a new event; for example, over 50 climate changes occurred during the Pleistocene and the Holocene (Lourens 2004; Wanner et al 2015), with most of them lasting a minimum of several hundred years (Crawford 2014). Mountain ungulates are not a taxonomic group, the large majority of them (75%; n = 41 species; Table S1, Supplementary Material 1) belongs to the subfamily Caprinae (Bovidae) and most of them (92%) inhabit the Holarctic bioregion (Shackleton 1997) They show adaptations to climb and use rocky or rugged ground for escape terrain, differently from other ungulates which may occur at high elevations (Schröder 1985). Especially in this bioregion, coldadapted vegetation on mountains with a limited elevational range (< 2000 m) is expected to show earlier the effects of the temperature increase because of snowmelt, in respect to vegetation of mountains with higher elevations (cf. Martin et al 1994; Beniston 1997; Beniston et al 2018; Rogora et al 2018), allowing predictions on the evolution of Alpine ecosystems with time
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