Abstract
This paper explores the possible links between rapid climate change (RCC) and social change in the Near East and surrounding regions (Anatolia, central Syria, southern Israel, Mesopotamia, Cyprus and eastern and central Sahara) during the ‘long’ 4th millennium (∼4500–3000) BC. Twenty terrestrial and 20 marine climate proxies are used to identify long-term trends in humidity involving transitions from humid to arid conditions and vice versa. The frequency distribution of episodes of relative aridity across these records is calculated for the period 6300–2000 BC, so that the results may be interpreted in the context of the established arid episodes associated with RCC around 6200 and 2200 BC (the 8.2 and 4.2 kyr events). We identify two distinct episodes of heightened aridity in the early-mid 4th, and late 4th millennium BC. These episodes cluster strongly at 3600–3700 and 3100–3300 BC. There is also evidence of localised aridity spikes in the 5th and 6th millennia BC. These results are used as context for the interpretation of regional and local archaeological records with a particular focus on case studies from western Syria, the middle Euphrates, southern Israel and Cyprus. Interpretation of the records involves the construction of plausible narratives of human–climate interaction informed by concepts of adaptation and resilience from the literature on contemporary (i.e. 21st century) climate change and adaptation. The results are presented alongside well-documented examples of climatically-influenced societal change in the central and eastern Sahara, where detailed geomorphological studies of ancient environments have been undertaken in tandem with archaeological research. While the narratives for the Near East and Eastern Mediterranean remain somewhat speculative, the use of resilience and adaptation frameworks allows for a more nuanced treatment of human–climate interactions and recognises the diversity and context-specificity of human responses to climatic and environmental change. Our results demonstrate that there is a need for more local environmental data to be collected ‘at source’ during archaeological excavations.
Highlights
In this paper we argue that the period from ~4500 BC to ~3000 BC1 in the Near East, Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa was one in which climatic changes, some of which were rapid and of high amplitude, had discernable impacts on human groups
What is evident is that, during the late 5th and 4th millennia BC across the Eastern Mediterranean, Near East and North Africa, there were widespread cultural disruptions that proceeded at different rates, at different scales and in different ways, but all approximately at the same times
The aim of this paper is to describe in detail the cultural transitions that took place in regions surrounding the Eastern Mediterranean where climate proxies indicate rapid and/or high amplitude changes
Summary
In this paper we argue that the period from ~4500 BC to ~3000 BC1 in the Near East, Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa was one in which climatic changes, some of which were rapid and of high amplitude, had discernable impacts on human groups. What is evident is that, during the late 5th and 4th millennia BC (the ‘long’ 4th millennium BC) across the Eastern Mediterranean, Near East and North Africa, there were widespread cultural disruptions that proceeded at different rates, at different scales and in different ways, but all approximately at the same times. Many of these upheavals appear to have coincided with periods of RCC. The ‘collapse’ model is somewhat unidirectional, and ignores the fact that RCC may mediate social change in other, more nuanced ways (Brooks, 2006, 2013)
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