Climatic Change and Global Warming of Inland Waters

There is a growing concern on a global scale that the world should transition towards the utilisation of energy-efficient technologies. Hydropower plays a very significant part in the fight against climate change, and as a result, it lessens the impact that climate changewill have on our ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Both the effectiveness of hydropower generation and the amount of streamflow are impacted by climate change as well as land use and land cover (LULC). Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to conduct a literature review on the topic of the past and future effects of climate, land use, and land cover changes on hydropower generation. This review will be based on the entries found in a number of reliable databases. A systematic literature review was carried out to analyse how LULC and climate change will affect hydropower generation and development. The research was based on 158 pieces of relevant literature that had been reviewed by experts and indexed in Scopus, Google Scholar, and ScienceDirect. The review was carried out to determine three goals in mind: the impact of climate change on hydropower generation and development; the impact of climate change on streamflow; and the combined impact of changes in climate and changes in LULC on hydropower. The findings bring to light the primary factors contributing to climate change as well as shifts in LULC which are essential to the generation of hydropower on all scales. The study identifies factors such as precipitation, temperature, floods, and droughts as examples of climate change. Deforestation, afforestation, and urbanisation are identified as the primary causes of changes in LULC over the past several decades. These changes have a negative impact on the generation and development of hydropower.

Malaria is a serious global health issue, resulting in an estimated 219 million cases and 660,000 deaths in 2010, many of them in Africa.1 Malaria transmission is tied closely to environmental variables such as rainfall and temperature—even when there’s plenty of rainfall to produce breeding pools for the Anopheles mosquitoes that spread malaria, hot temperatures can hamper mosquito development.2 Some early projections predicted that climate change would cause an increase in malaria cases,3 but more recent reports suggest it’s more likely that cases will shift in their distribution rather than rise overall.4 In this issue of EHP investigators at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) report their projections, using a new modeling tool, that there probably will not be a significant increase in malaria prevalence in West Africa, even during a worst-case scenario of increased rainfall in the region.5 The authors used the Hydrology, Entomology, and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS) to estimate the impact of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa. HYDREMATS is a combined hydrology and entomology model of malaria transmission developed at MIT by coauthor Elfatih A.B. Eltahir, a professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and former graduate student Arne Bomblies, now an assistant professor at the University of Vermont. The model uses high-resolution data on environmental variables including rainfall, temperature, topography, and soil conditions to model ephemeral breeding pools that form during intense rains. The model also tracks the simulated behavior of individual mosquitoes as they interact with their environment. The researchers used current climate data to model vectorial capacity, a measure of how efficiently mosquitoes spread malaria. They then looked at climate predictions for the time period 2080–2099 and determined which combination of temperature and rainfall changes corresponded to best- and worst-case scenarios in terms of malaria transmission. They conducted simulations using the best- and worst-case climate projections to predict vectorial capacity under each new scenario. The model did not include changes in malaria transmission due to interventions such as spraying, mosquito netting, and preventive medications. Figure 1 A child with malaria receives care in Sierra Leone. This country lies in a part of West Africa that is already saturated with malaria, and prevalence is not projected to increase with climate change. Figure 1 An ephemeral pool in Niger provides a perfect breeding site for Anopheles mosquitoes. This and other northern parts of West Africa could become too hot to sustain malaria. The northernmost areas studied are currently too dry and warm for effective malaria transmission. According to the model, they could become more suitable only if the climate becomes substantially wetter, but even then high temperatures likely would prohibit sustained transmission. The middle areas are expected to see a decrease in suitability for malaria transmission even under the wettest predictions of future climate. Southern areas could become even more suitable for transmission, but the persistent prevalence of malaria in these areas means a rise in cases is unlikely unless many people immigrate. Therefore, the investigators conclude, it appears unlikely, on the basis of this model, that climate change will increase malaria transmission in West Africa.5 “The main advantage of our malaria transmission model is that it provides a more detailed and direct relationship among environmental variables and malaria transmission than previous models,” says coauthor Teresa K. Yamana, a PhD student. “This is especially true for rainfall, because the timing of rain is just as important as the amount of rain. For example, more puddles form if there’s a big storm compared to if the same amount of rain falls over the course of several days.” Another strength of the study is its consideration of a wide range of climate predictions. Yamana explains that climate impact studies may be based on the climate predictions of a single model without knowing whether that model accurately represents the region of interest. Others average the predictions made by multiple models, but this is not a good strategy in the case of West Africa: “Half of the predictions say the climate will be wetter, half say it will be drier,6” she says, “so the average is something close to no change in rainfall—this could end up being very far from the truth.” Jonathan Patz, director of the Global Health Institute at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, is impressed by the researchers’ modeling because it “included a range of best- and worst-case scenarios to avoid bias. They also considered both temperature and rainfall, essential for malaria estimates.” He says, “Their findings are consistent with expectations that temperature projections alone explain only a part of malaria risk, and disease risk will considerably depend on rainfall and other environmental factors, particularly hydrological dynamics that vary by location.”

A meta-analysis of the possible impact of climate change on global cotton yield based on crop simulation approaches

Quantitatively projecting the impact of future climate change on the socio-economy and exploring its internal mechanism are of great practical significance to adapt to climate change and prevent climate risks. Based on the economy-climate (C-D-C) model, this paper introduces a yield impact of climate change (YICC) model that can quantitatively project the climate change impact. The model is based on the YICC as its core concept and uses the impact ratio of climate change (IRCC) indicator to assess the response of the economic system to climate change over a long period of time. The YICC is defined as the difference between the economic output under changing climate condition and that under assumed invariant climate condition. The IRCC not only reflects the sensitivity of economic output to climate change but also reveals the mechanism of the nonlinear interaction between climate change and non-climatic factors on the socio-economic system. Using the main grain-producing areas in China as a case study, we use the data of the ensemble average of 5 GCMs in CMIP6 to project the possible impact of climate change on grain production in the next 15–30 years under three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the long-term climate change in the future will have a restraining effect on production in North region and enhance production in South region. From 2021 to 2035, climate change will reduce production by 0.60–2.09% in North region, and increase production by 1.80–9.01% in South region under three future scenarios. From 2021 to 2050, compared with the climate change impact in 2021–2035, the negative impact of climate change on production in North region will weaken, and the positive impact on production in South region will enhance with the increase in emission concentration. Among them, climate change will reduce grain output in North region by 0.52–1.99%, and increase output in South region by 1.35–9.56% under the three future scenarios. The combination of economic results and climate change research is expected to provide scientific support for further revealing the economic mechanism of climate change impacts.

78.2 Impact of Climate Change on the Health and Well-Being of Indigenous Communities in Australia

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production in Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) where the deleterious impacts of climate change are generally projected to be greatest. Design/methodology/approach The study used a production function model using Fixed Effect Regression (FER) analysis and then using marginal impact analysis to assess the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production. Therefore, the study utilized panel data for the period 1961-2009 pooled from 20 countries in MENA region. Findings Results showed that 1 per cent increase in temperature during winter resulted in 1.12 per cent decrease in agricultural production. It was also observed that 1 per cent increase in temperature variability during winter and spring resulted in 0.09 and 0.14 per cent decrease in agricultural production, respectively. Results also indicated that increasing precipitation during winter and fall season and precipitation variability during winter and summer seasons had negative impact. The estimated parameters of square temperature and precipitation indicated that climate change has significant nonlinear impacts on agricultural production in MENA region. Originality/value Despite there are many studies on the impact of climate change on agricultural production, there is a lack of publications to address the economic impact of both climate change and variability on agricultural production in MENA region. Thus, these results are more comprehensive and more informative to policymakers than the results from field trials.

Beside land use change, future climate change potentially alters streamflow fluctuation of a river basin in Indonesia. We investigated relative impact of changes in climate and land use on the streamflow fluctuation of a watershed for future condition (2025). To account for the climate change, we simulated future rainfall and temperature scenarios using the downscaled rainfall and mean surface temperature of 24 CMIP5 GCM outputs with moderate scenario of RCP4.5. We used distributed hydrologic model (SWAT) to simulate relative impact of changes in climate and plantation expansion on the future streamflow fluctuation. The SWAT model performed well with the Nash-Sutcliff efficiency values of 0.80-0.85 (calibration) and 0.84-0.86 (validation). The results indicated that the climate change caused 32% decrease of the low flows during dry season and 96% increase of the flooding peak discharge during rainy season. Meanwhile, the plantation expansion led to 40% decrease of the low flow in the dry season and 65% increase of the flooding peak discharge in wet season. Both changes indicated strong impact on the extreme events such as flooding peak discharge and low flows. The impact of the climate change on the increased peak discharge was stronger compared to that of land use change. Meanwhile, the impact of the land use change on the low flow was stronger compared to that of the climate change. The results of this study pointed out that both climate change and the plantation expansion potentially become crucial factors for the future water security in Indonesia.

The impact of urban growth and climate change on heat stress in a sub-tropical Australian city

The (potential) impact of seasonality and climate change on the physicochemical and microbial properties of dairy waste and its management

Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries' potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea's agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation's producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.

The 2021 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: seizing the window of opportunity

In this paper, the impact of climate change on thermal climate zones was reported by using more recent weather data published by the China’s National Climate Center. The impact of these changes on current building energy standards was also investigated. To quantitatively analyse the potential impact of these changes on building energy consumption, building energy simulation techniques were used. This study has found that 27 of the 200 cities investigated in this analysis are assigned to new thermal climate zones, and most of these cities have shifted into a warmer climate zone. Three cities shift into uncategorized zone. According to the building energy standards for residential buildings, the maximum U-factor allowed for building envelope will increase and overall shading coefficient allowed for windows will decrease when the city is reassigned into a warmer zone. The simulation results show that it will generally have an adverse effect on building energy savings for residential buildings. The outcomes of this study reveal that current thermal climate zones cannot provide an adequate instruction for building energy efficiency and updating building energy standards, and thermal climate zones is necessary in future.

Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

Introduction There is a substantial literature about the future impacts of climate change (Nordhaus 1991; Cline 1992b; Fankhauser 1995; Mendelsohn et al . 2000; Tol 2002a); see Tol (2009b) for an overview. Less is known, however, about the impacts of climate change in the past. While there is no immediate policy relevance of estimates of past effects – as liability is yet to be established (Tol and Verheyen 2004) – such estimates would serve to validate models of future impacts – and thus help to improve these models and build confidence. In this chapter, I turn this question on its head. I use a model to backcast past impacts, thus generating hypotheses to be tested against observations. Unfortunately, there are no direct observations of the economic impact of past climate change. Note that the cause of climate change, past or future, is irrelevant for its impacts. There are, however, some studies that estimate particular aspects of the impact of past climate change, typically focussing on biophysical impacts.

This paper illustrates the potential impact of future climate change on the archaeological resource of river catchments, specifically in Britain, but with reference to other examples across the globe, when considering issues of generic applicability. It highlights an area of the environmental record often neglected by policy makers and environmental planners when considering the impact of climate change; where cultural heritage has been considered in the past, an emphasis has been placed on the historic built environment and major monuments. Through studying the recent past, particularly the last 1,000 years, geomorphologists and geoarchaeologists can add much empirical data to these debates concerning system response. In addition to the impact of the changing intensity and pattern of natural geomorphic processes, human response to climate change ranging from new farming practices through to the implementation of mitigation strategies to minimise the effects of increased flood frequency and magnitude could be equally as damaging to the archaeological record if not managed through informed decision making.