Climatic assessment of circum-Arctic permafrost zonation over the last 122 kyr

Abstract

Permafrost is an important climate factor of the cold-region environments, known to evolve over a long timescale. Although direct observations are required for the exact determination of presence, this is difficult especially in remote areas. An indirect assessment of permafrost zonation can help in estimating the probable extents and providing an understanding of its spatiotemporal variability under different climate. In this paper, we adopt a previously defined indirect assessment method using freezing and thawing indices, which was revised and evaluated against new observation-based dataset. The revised method was applied to time-series of the circum-Arctic environment for the past 122 kyr constructed from a Greenland ice core, present-day reanalysis climatology, and a glacial isostatic adjustment model, and subsequently, examined in terms of the aggregation, persistence, and retreat of permafrost. Permafrost zones over exposed land varied between 9.11 million km2 (interglacial) and 26.7 million km2 (glacial); the maximum extent of subsea and subglacial permafrost was 7.7 million km2 and 0.5 million km2, respectively. The climatic sensitivity of its areal extent was examined for the meridional temperature gradient in the polar amplification (increase by 0.2 million km2 [°C/10°]−1 when warming occurs) and the global mean annual temperature (decrease by 4.3 million km2°C−1).