Climatic and hydrological variations caused by Land Use/Land Cover changes in the valley of Toluca, Mexico: A rapid assessment

Abstract

• Climatic and hydrological variations caused by LULCCs were determined. • An increase in temperature and precipitation was observed in the study area. • The local hydrological parameters have been modified by the dynamics of the LULCCs. • It was shown that the proposed procedure is affordable for public policy designers. This work proposes an assessment procedure to determine the climatic and hydrological variations caused by Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCCs) at the local scale in developing countries. This was achieved by correlating the variations in temperature and precipitation with the LULCCs and estimating the effects on evapotranspiration, infiltration, and runoff that are part of the local hydrological balance. The results show that the studied area has experienced climatic variations. These variations have been presented as an increase in temperature and precipitation. Variations in temperature and precipitation are mainly concentrated in areas with the highest residential coverage and remain stable in areas where forest coverage persists. Likewise, it was possible established that the LULCCs are mainly concentrated in forest, cropland, and residential cover. Additionally, the infiltration, runoff, and evapotranspiration analyses suggest that these hydrological parameters are being altered by the dynamics of the LULCCs caused by anthropogenic activities, and most likely by deficient public policy, urban planning, and ecological management inconsistent with the environmental characteristics of the studied area. It was evidenced that the proposed procedure can be an easily accessible and interpretable tool for designers of public policies in developing countries.