Climate-sensitive disease outbreaks in the aftermath of extreme climatic events: A scoping review

Abstract

Outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (CSID) in the aftermath of extreme climatic events, such as floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, and heatwaves, are of high public health concern. Recent advances in forecasting of extreme climatic events have prompted a growing interest in the development of prediction models to anticipate CSID risk, yet the evidence base linking extreme climate events to CSID outbreaks to date has not been collated and synthesized. This review identifies potential hydrometeorological triggers of outbreaks and highlights gaps in knowledge on the causal chain between extreme events and outbreaks. We found higher evidence and higher agreement on the links between extreme climatic events and water-borne diseases than for vector-borne diseases. In addition, we found a substantial lack of evidence on the links between extreme climatic events and underlying vulnerability and exposure factors. This review helps inform trigger design for CSID prediction models for anticipatory public health action. Outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (CSID) in the aftermath of extreme climatic events, such as floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, and heatwaves, are of high public health concern. Recent advances in forecasting of extreme climatic events have prompted a growing interest in the development of prediction models to anticipate CSID risk, yet the evidence base linking extreme climate events to CSID outbreaks to date has not been collated and synthesized. This review identifies potential hydrometeorological triggers of outbreaks and highlights gaps in knowledge on the causal chain between extreme events and outbreaks. We found higher evidence and higher agreement on the links between extreme climatic events and water-borne diseases than for vector-borne diseases. In addition, we found a substantial lack of evidence on the links between extreme climatic events and underlying vulnerability and exposure factors. This review helps inform trigger design for CSID prediction models for anticipatory public health action.