Climate-related range shifts of Ardisia japonica in the Korean Peninsula: a role of dispersal capacity

Seon Uk Park,Changwan Seo,Kyung Ah Koo,Seungbum Hong

doi:10.1186/s41610-017-0055-y

Abstract

BackgroundMany studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. However, consideration of adaptation factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological processes, is necessary for a more accurate prediction. This study predicted the future distribution of marlberry (Ardisia japonica), a warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved shrub, under climate change in relation to the dispersal ability that is determined by elapsed time for the first seed production.ResultsWe introduced climate change data under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios from five different global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future distributions (2041~2060) of marlberry. Using these 20 different climate data, ensemble forecasts were produced by averaging the future distributions of marlberry in order to minimize the model uncertainties. Then, a dispersal-limited function was applied to the ensemble forecast in order to exam the impact of dispersal capacity on future marlberry distributions. In the dispersal-limited function, elapsed time for the first seed production and possible dispersal distances define the dispersal capacity. The results showed that the current suitable habitats of marlberry expanded toward central coast and southern inland area from the current southern and mid-eastern coast area in Korea. However, given the dispersal-limited function, this experiment showed lower expansions to the central coast area and southern inland area.ConclusionsThis study well explains the importance of dispersal capacity in the prediction of future marlberry distribution and can be used as basic information in understanding the climate change effects on the future distributions of Ardisia japonica.

Highlights

Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions
The present study predicted the future distribution of Ardisia japonica according to climate changes using the True Skill Statistic (TSS)-weighted ensemble model and a dispersal function
The current suitable habitats appeared in the southern coast area, Jeju-do, excluding Mount Hallasan in the southernmost Korean Peninsula (KP), Jeolla-do inland area in the southern

Summary

Introduction

Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. The distributions of alpine plants have decreased under global warming (Randin et al 2009; Koo et al 2015), and warm-adapted plants expanded or shifted northwards (Nakao et al 2011, 2014; Yun et al 2011, 2014; Park et al 2016, 2016). Most studies on climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions (Thomas et al 2004). For a more accurate prediction of plant future distribution under climate change, a thorough consideration of other factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological responses, is important (Thomas et al 2004; Thuiller et al 2005).

Methods

Results

Conclusion