Climate-Driven Synchrony in Anchovy Fluctuations: A Pacific-Wide Comparison

Abstract

Fish population fluctuations have been widely documented and are often attributed to climate variability, but little is known about their relationship. This is a barrier that restricts our capacity to understand climate effects on fish fluctuations. Here, we collected published data to conduct a comparative analysis of time series in terms of both scale deposition rate (SDR) and catch to indicate the abundance of anchovy and explored its relationships with climatic and environmental parameters. We first conducted a Spearman correlation analysis to identify the differences in the SDR between sites. Then, we used Generalized Additive Models to evaluate the effects of external forcing at multiple spatial scales (i.e., local and global scales) on the anchovy catches recorded at the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), Humboldt Current Ecosystem (HCE), and Kuroshio Current Ecosystem (KCE). We found that the SDRs at different sites in the same Current Systems are generally consistent, while there are more differences between different systems. We also found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDOI), North Pacific index (NPI), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index (NPGOI), Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTA), and Air Temperature anomaly (ATA) were the most influential factors explaining the variability in anchovy catch for CCE, whereas the NPGOI was the most influential factor for HCE. The PDOI was the best at explaining the variability in anchovy catch for KCE. Our results suggest that anchovy fluctuations in the Pan-Pacific occurred synchronously. These seemingly unrelated events, which occurred thousands of kilometers apart, were actually not isolated. Therefore, we suggest that large-scale climate forcing may activate synchronous fluctuations for anchovy populations at the basin scale, whereas local-scale environmental forces are also responsible for anchovy fluctuations in the “micro-environment”.