Abstract
Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year−1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.
Highlights
Sea surface temperature is a key environmental predictor that affects the biogeographic distribution of many organisms
Species Records and Environmental Data The species distribution modeling and range expansion analyses of Amphistegina is based on an extensive sample set that was collected recently (2004–2012) between equatorial sites of Somalia/Kenya, and Cape Town, in South Africa
This study reports the first species distribution model (SDM) approach to project potential range expansion of foraminifera under current and future climate conditions
Summary
Sea surface temperature is a key environmental predictor that affects the biogeographic distribution of many organisms. Global climate change is likely to alter the range of areas potentially suitable for habitation [1,2,3,4]. Among the predicted effects of rising temperature is the range expansion of species into areas where they previously did not exist [5,6,7,8]. A rapidly increasing number of studies have shown ‘‘fingerprints’’ of recent climate-driven changes in various biological systems. This includes range shifts of species towards higher latitudes, higher elevation and earlier springtime phenologies [9,10,11,12]. Only a limited number of studies have addressed rates of range shifts in marine biotas [13]
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