Climate warming induces the activity period prolongation and distribution range expansion of the Asian mantis Hierodula patellifera in South Korea

Abstract

The Asian mantis, Hierodula patellifera, is a native species of South-East Asia and has been designated as a Korean Climate Biological Indicator Species. This study aimed to understand the responses of the phenology and distribution of H. patellifera to recent climate trends in South Korea as well as predictions for future responses. We constructed a combined dataset consisting of 1169 records ranging from 1984 to 2022. The number of records sharply increased over time and space, with citizen science data accounting for the greatest proportion. Our study confirmed the prolongation of the overall activity period of the Asian mantis over the past seven years caused by the advanced emergence and delayed senescence. The distribution range of the species also expanded towards higher latitudes and inland regions over the last 40 years. Species distribution models showed that temperature-related variables in the summer and winter seasons were the most critical factors influencing its distribution. In the future, suitable habitats for this species are predicted to expand across the entire Korean peninsula as temperatures rise based on the SSP climate scenarios. These results support the suitability of H. patellifera, which prefers warm environments, as a biological indicator of climate change. They suggest consistent monitoring under future climate warming. Our study also provides novel insights into the value of citizen science as a critical monitoring tool for detecting the impacts of climate change on ecosystems.