Climate Warming and Crop Management: A Comprehensive Analysis of Changes on Distribution of Suitable Areas for Double Rice

Abstract

Understanding the effect of climate warming and technological progress on crop production systems is crucial for developing climate adaptation strategies. This study presents a methodological framework with which to assess the suitability of the double rice cropping system in Southern China and the effects of crop management and climate warming on its distribution. The results indicate that the isolated effects of climate warming have led to the northward and westward expansions of double rice northern limits over the past six decades and an increase in suitable areas by 4.76 Mha. Under the isolated effect of crop management, the northern limits of the medium- and late-maturity double rice changed significantly due to the increased accumulated temperature required caused by varietal replacement and planting date change, which moved an average of 123 and 134 km southward, respectively. A combined scenario analysis indicated that crop management could offset the effects of climate warming and push the northern limits southward, reducing the overall suitable area by 1.31 Mha. Varietal replacement and other crop management methods should also be appropriately considered in addition to climate warming to develop locally adapted agricultural management strategies.