Climate Warming & California's Water Future

Abstract

Few states depend more on climatic stability than California. While the California water system is designed fairly well to accommodate repeats of historical droughts in the near future, there is concern that California might not be able to easily accommodate major droughts in the more distant future, especially with the hydrologic consequences of significant climate warming. This study developed comprehensive surface and ground water hydrologies for 12 climate warming scenarios for California's inter-tied water system, as well as economic water demand estimates for urban and agricultural uses for estimates 2100 population levels. The most severe of these 12 climatic warming hydrologies was then employed with these 2100 economic water demands as inputs into an integrated economic-engineering optimization model of California's inter-tied water system (CALVIN). The results indicate the effects of population growth and climatic change on the performance of California's water system, as well as promising water management strategies to respond to these changes in supply and demand conditions over the coming century.