Climate variability, change and potential impacts on tourism: Evidence from the Zambian side of the Victoria Falls

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing the world today. Its consequences affect many communities and sectors, with the poor particularly vulnerable. One of the sectors that benefit the poor is tourism, and the sector gets impacted by global warming that causes climate variability and change. This study examined the evidence and potential implications of climate variability and change on tourism in the Zambian town of Livingstone. A mixed methods case study design drew on 40 years of historical meteorological data from the Zambia Meteorological Department (1976 to 2016), an online survey of tourists (n = 369), key informant interviews and remote-sensed data. The Geographical Information System (GIS) ArcView 10.5, Question-Pro Text Analysis and Microsoft Excel Toolpak were used to analyse the data. A Mann-Kendall trend test was run on precipitation and temperature data which pointed to a statistical significant change in annual average temperature and no statically significant change in annual average rainfall. However statistical significant changes were reported for some months for precipitation. The research found evidence of climate variability and change in Livingstone, indicated by an increase in temperature, extreme rainfall patterns, a decline in rainfall and a fluctuation in water flow levels at the Victoria Falls. The changes pose a potential threat to wildlife and the Victoria Falls resort and may undermine future tourism operations and activities. It is recommended that Livingstone adopt a new climate calendar, green tourism, that tourism authorities proactively plan for climate change and that further research be conducted on the impact of changes and variables on flora, fauna and the Victoria Falls resort.