Abstract
ObjectivesWe aimed to evaluate the relationships between climate variability, animal reservoirs and scrub typhus incidence in Southern China.MethodsWe obtained data on scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou every month from 2006 to 2014 from the Chinese communicable disease network. Time-series Poisson regression models and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to evaluate the relationship between risk factors and scrub typhus.ResultsWavelet analysis found the incidence of scrub typhus cycled with a period of approximately 8–12 months and long-term trends with a period of approximately 24–36 months. The DLNM model shows that relative humidity, rainfall, DTR, MEI and rodent density were associated with the incidence of scrub typhus.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the incidence scrub typhus has two main temporal cycles. Determining the reason for this trend and how it can be used for disease control and prevention requires additional research. The transmission of scrub typhus is highly dependent on climate factors and rodent density, both of which should be considered in prevention and control strategies for scrub typhus.
Highlights
Scrub typhus, known as tsutsugamushi disease, is a rickettsial disease that is highly endemic in East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean areas [1]
Wavelet analysis found the incidence of scrub typhus cycled with a period of approximately 8–12 months and long-term trends with a period of approximately 24–36 months
The distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) model shows that relative humidity, rainfall, diurnal temperature range (DTR), multivariate ENSO index (MEI) and rodent density were associated with the incidence of scrub typhus
Summary
Known as tsutsugamushi disease, is a rickettsial disease that is highly endemic in East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean areas [1]. Scrub typhus is caused by infection with Orientia tsutsugamushi, which is often carried by the rodent hosts Rattus flavipectus, Rattus rattoides, Apodemus agrarius, and Suncus murinus [6, 7]. The incubation period is approximately 4–21 days, and the typical clinical symptoms include fever, eschars or ulcers, lymphadenopathy, and skin rash [8]. It predominantly occurs in farmers and occurs in urban populations through exposures in parks and visits to the country side [9]
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