Climate Variability and the Incidence of COVID-19 in Jakarta

Abstract

Since the first case was detected on March 3, 2020, the incidence of COVID-19 has exponentially increased in Jakarta. Some theories claimed that COVID-19 virus activities were affected by climate variability. The aim of this study is to search and predict the correlation between daily incidences of COVID-19 with climate variability in Jakarta. A cross sectional study was made, sampling total daily cases of COVID-19 in Jakarta from March 3 to July 3, 2020. Climate variability consisted of the mean daily temperature (MDT), mean daily humidity (MDH), mean daily rainfall (MDR), length of solar radiation (LSR), and mean daily wind velocity (MDW). The incidence of COVID-19 was registered by data in the Department of Health (DoH) in Jakarta, while climate variability was obtained by data from the Geophysical and Meteorological Board (BMKG). This data was analyzed by Pearson correlation, Poisson regression and linear regression using SPSS version 23. The mean and standard deviations of the incidences of COVID-19 during the four months were 98.32 +/- 56, MDT 29.1 +/- 0.77, MDH 77.9 +/- 3.84, MDR 51.3 +/- 453.2, LSR 5.03 +/- 2.5, and MDW 1.7 +/- 0.51. Pearson correlation was found as MDT p=0.048, r=0.17;MDH p=0.015, r= -0.219, MDR p=0.397, r=0.087, LSR p=0.8, r=0.01, MDW p=0.00, r=-0.3, respectively. However, linear regression in model two obtained MDW (p=0.00, beta= -0.4, CI 95%= -79.4 to -34.3) and MDT (p=0.00, beta=0.3, CI 95%= 13.2 to 40.1). Poisson Regression for MDW (p=0.00, beta=-0.5, CI95%= -0.6 to -0.5), MDT (p=0.00, beta=0.2, CI95%=0.17 to 0.27). Climate variability parameters such as MDT were positively correlated with incidences of COVID-19, and MDH and MDW were negatively associated with incidences of COVID-19. However, only MDT and MDW can predict the incidence of COVID-19 in Jakarta.