Climate Variability and Malaria Transmission �C Fogera District, Ethiopia, 2003-2011

Abstract

Background: Epidemic malaria creates serious public health emergencies in Ethiopia. Malaria transmission rates have been linked to temperature and precipitation; factors that will be affected by increasing climate variability. Method: We analyzed climate and malaria data from January 2003-December 2011 in Fogera district of Ethiopia. We compared monthly rainfall and temperature data with the number of confirmed malaria cases. Results: We identified 104,716 confirmed malaria cases, which were treated in the district from 2003-2011 (monthly cases range from 98 – 5038). The annual prevalence rate was 104 per 1000. Annual average rainfall was 1268 mm, and annually there were between four and six months with rainfall that exceeded 80mm. There was a trend associating months with rainfall above 80mm and higher rates of confirmed malaria cases in seven of the nine years of the study period. Average monthly temperatures throughout the nine years period ranged from 180c to 280c. Conclusions: Malaria still constitutes a serious public health problem in Fogera district. Monthly precipitation greater than 80 mm was associated with increased malaria transmission rates in the district, and temperature probably was not a limiting factor. We recommend the development of climate prediction models to help forecast and control malaria outbreaks in the district.