Climate variability and irregular migration to the European Union

Abstract

The so-called ‘European Migrant Crisis’ has been blamed on armed conflict and economic misery, particularly in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. Some have suggested that this process has been exacerbated by climate change and weather events. In this paper, we evaluate these claims, focusing on the role of droughts in influencing irregular migration flows to the European Union. Drawing on temporally disaggregated data on the detection of unauthorized migrants at EU external borders, we examine how weather shocks affect irregular migration. We show that weather events may indeed influence migration. Yet, in contradiction to the findings from recent research, we find no evidence that a drought in a sending country increases unauthorized migration to the EU. If anything, and while not entirely conclusive, the incidence of drought seems rather to exert a negative, albeit moderate, impact on the size of migration flows, in particular for countries dependent on agriculture. Conversely, higher levels of rainfall increase migration. We interpret this as evidence that international migration is cost-prohibitive, and that adverse weather shocks reinforce existing financial barriers to migration.