Abstract

Abstract. Scania (Skåne in Swedish), southern Sweden, offers a particularly interesting case for studying the historical relationship between climate variability and grain production, given the favorable natural conditions in terms of climate and soils for grain production, as well as the low share of temperature-sensitive wheat varieties in its production composition. In this article, a contextual understanding of historical grain production in Scania, including historical, phenological, and natural geographic aspects, is combined with a quantitative analysis of available empirical sources to estimate the relationship between climate variability and grain production between the years 1702 and 1911. The main result of this study is that grain production in Scania was primarily sensitive to climate variability during the high summer months of June and July, preferring cool and humid conditions, and to some extent precipitation during the winter months, preferring dry conditions. Diversity within and between historical grain varieties contributed to making this risk manageable. Furthermore, no evidence is found for grain production being particularly sensitive to climate variability during the spring, autumn, and harvest seasons. At the end of the study period, these relationships were shifting as the so-called early improved cultivars were being imported from other parts of Europe. Finally, new light is shed on the climate history of the region, especially for the late 18th century, previously argued to be a particularly cold period, through homogenization of the early instrumental temperature series from Lund (1753–1870).

Highlights

  • IntroductionNumerous studies have explored the relationship between grain yields, prices, and climatic change in medieval and early modern Europe

  • The aim of this article is to study the relationship between climate variability and grain production in Scania during the period 1702–1911

  • I present the main results from the monthly temperature series homogenization for the early study period

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Summary

Introduction

Numerous studies have explored the relationship between grain yields, prices, and climatic change in medieval and early modern Europe. The fundamental assumption underlying these studies is that grain production to a substantial degree was affected by variability in temperature and precipitation (Edvinsson et al, 2009; Holopainen et al, 2012; Camenisch, 2015; Esper et al, 2017; Pribyl, 2017; Ljungqvist et al, 2021a, b). Most of these studies have either focused on temperature-sensitive grain types like wheat or temperature-sensitive agricultural regions, like Finland or the Scottish Highlands (Parry and Carter, 1985; Brunt, 2015; Huhtamaa and Helama, 2017a). Scanian agriculture has continued to sustain its growth trajectory, intermittently inter-

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