Abstract
The paper presents an analysis of the changes in fishing practices in West Africa both by national and foreign vessels and in trade patterns, as well as on the way in which these affect the economic and nutritional patterns of the Western and Central African countries, especially when climate variability is taken into account. Projections for the next decade indicate an increasing gap between estimated demand and supply under all scenarios elaborated. The more optimistic scenario shows that when environmental conditions are favourable, future fish supply cannot fulfil a growing population demand if per capita consumption remains at 2012 level. When environmental conditions are unfavourable, the supply-demand gap could rise to 1.8 million tonnes. However, even the best environmental conditions will not be able to satisfy the demand if the fish consumption per capita increases and the gap will progressively grow with time reaching 2.9 million tonnes in 2025. The pessimistic scenario presents a worrying picture of the future supply of West Africa where the gap between demand and supply may reach 3.3 million tonnes in 2025. In both scenarios, market mechanisms will adjust demand and supply by increasing the price of fish reducing therefore the accessibility for poor people and inhabitants of rural and areas far from the main fish markets. The foreseen deficiencies of fish supply will lead to nutritional loss, as some nutritional elements present in fish are not adequately represented in the foreseen substitutes (e.g. chicken). Therefore, climate variability increases the food security risks both in terms of quantity and quality.
Highlights
West African countries face major challenges related to nutrition [1]
Small pelagics in West Africa are at the centre of food security stakes in coastal areas
Though the net supply of fish in African countries was stable over the last decade, it is composed more and more exclusively of small pelagic species like sardinella which are highly dependent on upwelling conditions
Summary
West African countries face major challenges related to nutrition [1]. Of a combined population of 226 million people, nearly thirtyfive percent of children less than five years of age are stunted, a sign of a chronically poor diet while about 5 to 15% of young children die young, a sign of acute hunger. This paper is an attempt to establish a link between climate variability, the production system, fish trade, consumption and food security in Africa It focuses on small pelagic fishes because they are (i) highly influenced by climatic changes that affect the quality of the upwelling; and (ii) the major source of fish consumption of West African populations [16]. The objective of the paper is to present major present and future issues on food security that are conditioned by current and future changes of the upwelling quality, the structure of the production system and trade and consumption patterns 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 water Diadrom Cephalopods Pelagic Marine Fish
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