Climate Variability and Farmers’ Perception in Southern Ethiopia

Befikadu Esayas,Ermias Teferi,Nigussie Tefera,Victor Ongoma,Belay Simane

doi:10.1155/2019/7341465

Abstract

The study aims to analyze climate variability and farmers’ perception in Southern Ethiopia. Gridded annual temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia for the period between 1983 and 2014. Using a multistage sampling technique, 403 farm households were surveyed to substantiate farmers’ perceptions about climate variability and change. The study applied a nonparametric Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall’s trend tests to detect the magnitude and statistical significance of climate variability and binary logit regression model to find factors influencing farm households’ perceptions about climate variability over three agroecological zones (AEZs). The trend analysis reveals that positive trends were observed in the annual maximum temperature, 0.02°C/year (p<0.01) in the lowland and 0.04°C/year (p<0.01) in the highland AEZs. The positive trend in annual minimum temperature was consistent in all AEZs and significant (p<0.01). An upward trend in the annual total rainfall (10 mm/year) (p<0.05) was recorded in the midland AEZ. Over 60% of farmers have perceived increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in all AEZs. However, farmers’ perception about rainfall in the midland AEZ contradicts with meteorological analysis. Results from the binary logit model inform that farmers’ climate change perceptions are significantly influenced by their access to climate and market information, agroecology, education, agricultural input, and village market distance. Based on these results, it is recommended to enhance farm households’ capacity by providing timely weather and climate information along with institutional actions such as agricultural extension services.

Highlights

Academic Editor: Gabriele Buttafuoco e study aims to analyze climate variability and farmers’ perception in Southern Ethiopia
This study considered three existing stations, which are located over the agroecological zones (AEZs) using the gridded data set for the purpose of comparison by AEZ, which in turn is assumed to represent each AEZ with the available climate data over the study period (1983–2014). e stations include Bilate (Lowland), Wolaita (Midland), and Boditi School (Highland) (Figure 1). e stations were selected purposively as they have long years of observed temperature and rainfall data. e analysis period, 1983–2014, was chosen due to available data and to explore recent changes in temperature and rainfall, which help to recognize trends and data coverage across the AEZs. e gridded data can be accessed at National Meteorological Agency (NMA) for the climatic stations located in the AEZs
Variability and Trends in Annual Maximum Temperature. e coefficient of variation (CV) of the highland AEZ is nearly double that of the midland and lowland AEZs, suggesting a high variability in the annual time scale include annual maximum temperature (ATmax) over the 32 years under study. e year 2012 was observed as the hottest year in AEZs while 1989 was the lowest ATmax year for the midland and lowland AEZs (Table 2 and Figure 2). e hottest and coldest years are consistent with a study by Mengistu et al [17], which reported that AEZs in the Upper Nile basin experienced relatively cold years in the 1980s and warm years from the early 1990s to the 2000s

Summary

Introduction

Academic Editor: Gabriele Buttafuoco e study aims to analyze climate variability and farmers’ perception in Southern Ethiopia. Over 60% of farmers have perceived increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in all AEZs. farmers’ perception about rainfall in the midland AEZ contradicts with meteorological analysis. Results from the binary logit model inform that farmers’ climate change perceptions are significantly influenced by their access to climate and market information, agroecology, education, agricultural input, and village market distance. Based on these results, it is recommended to enhance farm households’ capacity by providing timely weather and climate information along with institutional actions such as agricultural extension services. Studies have reported high variability in rainfall and the associated adverse effects of rainfall changes in East Africa [5,6,7]. Broomer et al [14] noted that perceived personal experiences can affect climate change belief and the corresponding adaptation and mitigation measures to be taken

Objectives

Results

Conclusion