Climate suitability for summer maize on the North China Plain under current and future climate scenarios

Abstract

AbstractMaize production on the North China Plain (NCP) is critical to food security in China; however, currently, it is affected by climate change. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of the climate suitability for maize on the NCP in the present and future may help sustainably use climate‐related resources to ensure food security in China. In this study, 30 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and a statistical downscaling model (NWAI‐WG) were used to project meteorological data in 2021–2100 under representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 for 23 national climatic stations on the NCP. Based on agricultural climate suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method, the suitability of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation on summer maize were analysed. The results showed that temperature suitability is decreasing for 2021–2100, especially during the stages from jointing to maturity; temperature suitability is the lowest in the southwest and increases to the northeast under both scenarios. Compared to 1996–2015, the precipitation suitability in 2021–2100 increases greatly under both scenarios, especially in the central part under RCP4.5 and in the north part under RCP8.5. Solar radiation suitability shows a decreasing trend for 1996–2015, however, an increasing trend for 2021–2100 under both scenarios. At spatial scale, the solar suitability increases from southwest to northeast. The integrated climate suitability under RCP4.5 in 2021–2100 is averaged approximately 0.8 and varies slightly, indicating climate change may do small effect on maize growth, though the high values shifting from the central part in 2021–2040 to the northern part in 2081–2100; however, under RCP8.5, the integrated climate suitability shows a downward trend, indicating that climate change will make many regions less suitable for maize growth. These results could provide basic information for agriculture to adapt to climate change and ensure food security for China.