Abstract
Agro-hydrological water management frameworks help to integrate expected planned management and expedite regulation of water allocation for agricultural production. Low production is not only due to the variability of available water during crop growing seasons, but also poor water management decisions. The Tanjung Karang Rice Irrigation Scheme in Malaysia has yet to model agro-hydrological systems for effective water distribution under climate change impacts. A climate-smart agro-hydrological model was developed using Excel-based Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) for adaptive irrigation and wise water resource management towards water security under new climate change realities. Daily climate variables for baseline (1976–2005) and future (2010–2099) periods were extracted from 10 global climate models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The projected available water for supply to the scheme would noticeably decrease during the dry season. The water demand in the scheme will differ greatly during the months in future dry seasons, and the increase in effective rainfall during the wet season will compensate for the high dry season water demand. No irrigation will therefore be needed in the months of May and June. In order to improve water distribution, simulated flows from the model could be incorporated with appropriate cropping patterns.
Highlights
Water crises are a global issue of significant concern
The model outputs reveal that future effective rainfall will decrease from the baseline period by an average of 9.39%, 34.33%, and 17.90% for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, respectively, using the multiple models in the dry season period (Figure 3)
Climate projections in the study location, show a decrease in the effective rainfall of the dry season (January–June) and an increase in the wet season (July–December). Based on these findings, flooding is likely to increase during the wet season, as well as intermittent dry spells during the dry season
Summary
Water crises are a global issue of significant concern. Water is becoming a scarce resource, for agriculture, and for most sectors in most locations across the globe. A climate-smart agro-hydrological model can be a robust solution for wise water management decisions in a large-scale irrigation scheme to cope with the risk of water and food security under the new realities of climate change. An agro-hydrological model, Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP) was applied to assess the effects of management of irrigation water on water and salt balances [19]. An integrated system is crucial to address the complexity in various agricultural water management phases within the context of the agro-hydrological watershed, with the emerging issue of climate change. Agricultural use of water is based on various variables including climatic circumstances, topography, lithology, soil, management methods, and plant type Understanding these parameters enables crop water requirements to be estimated and crop management processes to be established.
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