Climate shocks and political violence

Abstract

The dominant discourse on the security implications of climate change has asserted that acute environmental scarcity—such as that caused by drought—causes political violence. In contrast, we argue that there are good reasons why water scarcity might have a pacifying effect on armed conflict, and that political violence should be more prevalent during periods of comparatively better agro-climatic conditions. Political violence is more prevalent when basic needs are met and when the tactical environment is more conducive to attacks—conditions that hold when water is comparatively abundant. Empirically, this paper explores the relationship between environmental scarcity and political violence in a global sample of countries, 1970–2006. We find that water abundance is positively correlated with political violence, and that this relationship is stronger in less developed, more agriculturally dependent societies. These findings are robust to several different operationalizations of our variables. We conclude with a brief discussion of the policy implications of our findings.