Abstract
To limit global warming to less than 2 °C requires a low-carbon transition with very large shares of renewables. Options such as wind, solar and hydro are influenced by both short and longer-term weather and climate variability. While still subject to natural and anthropogenic climate forcing and fluctuating energy prices, water reservoirs can dually operate as storage and production facilities and serve to balance the more volatile production capacity from solar and wind. This paper assesses the dynamics and demands of the hydro-dominated Nordic electricity system and market and identifies untapped potential for climate services based on a combination of literature-based research, documented stakeholder needs and data sources on historical and future conditions. A critical need for both improving the appropriateness and reliability of existing climate services and for developing new tailored solutions for a broader group of stakeholders from the renewable energy sector in the Nordics is observed. The quantification of uncertainties related to short-term weather forecasts and longer-term climate predictions is also found to be important for minimizing the financial risk in relation to systems management and to overall investments in renewable energy.
Highlights
The large-scale penetration of renewable energy sources for electricity production is essential if the goals of the Paris Agreement [1] are to be met
To assess the current use and future needs for CSs in the renewable energy sector, we reviewed a number of existing studies
CS potentials for the renewable electricity market (Section 3.4)
Summary
The large-scale penetration of renewable energy sources for electricity production is essential if the goals of the Paris Agreement [1] are to be met. Accommodating high shares of renewables, including wind and solar, whose potentials can fluctuate greatly over very short time scales, incurs special challenges. The systemic efficiency of wind and solar power critically depends on the installed capacity for electricity storage, interactions between the different sources of power on the electricity market, and the flexibility of other sources, including both conventional energy conversion technologies and other renewables. The Nordic electricity market offers special opportunities for the efficient and joint management of wind, solar, and hydropower, since hydropower reservoirs, which dominate the Nordic electricity market [12], can act as electricity storage, and at the same time constitute a very flexible production facility. Hydropower is, dependent on weather conditions, though its dependence on weather is seasonal and with temporal dependencies up to six months or more
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