Abstract
Abstract. Assessing an area's vulnerability can serve as an effective planning tool to increase resilience to climate-related hazards. This paper provides information on the most vulnerable municipalities to climate change impacts in the province of Agusan del Norte, Philippines. The assessment included in the geospatial analysis were physical, agro-ecological, and socio-economic indicators clustered under the components of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Using MaxEnt, modelling the suitability of crops due to changes in temperature and precipitation by the year 2050 determines the crops' sensitivity. A combination of natural hazards datasets was used to estimate the extent of exposure to each municipality within the province under pressure from climate and hydro-meteorological risks. An up-to-date database from the concerned local government units for adaptive capacity indicators was clustered into seven capitals: economic, natural, human, physical, social, anticipatory, and institutional. The total CRV model for rice, corn, and banana crops revealed that the municipalities identified as highly vulnerable due to their high exposure to climate hazards, the decreasing crops' suitability to climate variability, and low adaptive capacity.
Highlights
Impacts of climate change on food production systems depend primarily on the adaptation measures undertaken by local communities (International Center for Climate Change Governance, 2016)
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007)
The maps of climate risks generated through this study have been made available for the Province of Agusan del Norte as the basis for climate-resilient agriculture (CRA) investment planning
Summary
Impacts of climate change on food production systems depend primarily on the adaptation measures undertaken by local communities (International Center for Climate Change Governance, 2016). These adaptation strategies will apply to the complex issues on water use and food production as affected by climate change. Vulnerability to climate change is defined as "the degree to which a system is susceptible to and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. In the Philippines, due to its geographical and environmental setting, it has become extremely vulnerable to natural disasters, including climate change (Senate Economic Planning Office, 2013). From 2010 to 2014, loss and damages from climate/weather-induced disasters reached a total of Php136 billion or an average of PhP27 billion annually
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