Abstract
Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) is a herbaceous C3 crop that has demonstrated resilience in regions concurrently affected by climate change and food insecurity, such as sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The photosynthetic rate and productivity of C3 crops are enhanced under increasing CO2 concentrations. We looked at future climate trends in SSA to estimate their impacts on quinoa yields in Burkina Faso. Climate projections show a temperature increase of 1.67-4.90°C under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively by the end of the century. We demonstrate that any further climate disturbances can either be beneficial or harmful for quinoa, and modulating climate risks will depend on the decisions made at the farm level (e.g. planting date and crop choice). Crop modelling supports the identification of the most suitable transplanting dates based on future climate conditions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), agroclimatic zones (Sahel, Soudano-Sahelian and Soudanian) and time-horizons (2020, 2025, 2050 and 2075). We show that quinoa yields can improve—when grown under irrigated conditions and transplanted in November—by about 14-20% under RCP 4.5 and by 24-33% under RCP 8.5 by 2075 across the Sahel and Soudanian agroclimatic zones, respectively. For the Soudano-Sahelian zone, the highest yield improvements (19%) are obtained when transplanting is assumed in December under RCP 8.5 by 2075. Overall, the findings of this work encourage policymakers and agricultural extension officers to further promote climate-resilient and highly nutritious crops. Such possibilities are of much interest in SSA, thought to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts where millions of people are already experiencing food insecurity.
Highlights
During the upcoming decades, the Sahel and West Africa regions are likely to encounter faster warming than the rest of the globe (Sanderson et al 2011, Diffenbaugh & Giorgi 2012, James & Washington 2013, Mora et al 2013)
The duration of high temperature stress (HTS) was projected to extend across space and time, in the Soudano-Sahelian zone under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5
HTS in the Soudanian zone was expected to be limited to 2 months (October and March) under RCP 8.5
Summary
The Sahel and West Africa regions are likely to encounter faster warming than the rest of the globe (Sanderson et al 2011, Diffenbaugh & Giorgi 2012, James & Washington 2013, Mora et al 2013). Some studies have used the Système d’Analyse Régionale des Risques Agroclimatologiques Version H (SARRAH) model to assess the impacts of future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) on sorghum and millet yields (Thornton et al 2011, Sultan et al 2013). The latter simulations estimate a 10% yield reduction (average of both crops) for at least 50 and 80% of the medium- (2031−2050) to long-term (2071−2090) climate projections relative to the 1961−1990 period. Heat-stress conditions are expected to adversely impact the flowering stage of many crops due to pollen desiccation and low pollen viability (Hatfield et al 2011, Hatfield & Prueger 2015)
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