Abstract
Abstract: The objective of this work was to determine the accumulation of chill hours and to define the areas with aptitude for olive (Olea europaea) cultivation in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, as well as to analyze the impacts of climate change projections on chilling-hour requirements and climatic zoning, in two radiative forcing scenarios. The trigonometric method was used to quantify the number of chill hours, considering base temperatures (Tb) of 7.0, 9.5, and 13°C (high, medium, and low chill, respectively), and was applied to present climate (1983-2012) and to two future climate (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) conditions. The present climate data were obtained from 47 conventional weather stations, and the future climate data were obtained from three Earth system models (IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3, and MIROC5). Future projections point to a decrease in the suitable areas for olive crop cultivation, particularly under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 and for olive cultivars with a high-chilling requirement (Tb=7.0ºC). Of the olive cultivars requiring medium chill (Tb=9.5ºC), only 2.6% (RCP 4.5) and 1.6% (RCP 8.5) will be suitable in the extreme south and in higher altitude areas of Minas Gerais, while, of those requiring low chill (Tb=13ºC), 11.8% (RCP 4.5) and 6.7% (RCP 8.5) will be suitable. If the climate projections become true, the cultivation of olive crops will be viable in the southern region and in higher altitude areas of the state of Minas Gerais.
Highlights
Climate projections indicate considerable changes in the meteorological patterns in large part of Brazil throughout the twenty-first century, mainly related to increases in air temperature (IPCC, 2013; Santos et al, 2017b; Silva et al, 2019)
The comparison between the Tm, temperatures (in Celsius): maximum (TM), and T21 values obtained at the weather stations and simulated by the three Earth system models (ESMs) (Figure 1) showed that T21 had the worst performance in the simulation, with an average overestimation of 2°C, which justifies bias correction by the method of Lenderink et al (2007), as previously described
The air-temperature values simulated by the models individually differed from the those observed for the state of Minas Gerais; the average values of the three models were close to those registered at the weather stations
Summary
Climate projections indicate considerable changes in the meteorological patterns in large part of Brazil throughout the twenty-first century, mainly related to increases in air temperature (IPCC, 2013; Santos et al, 2017b; Silva et al, 2019). These changes will affect mostly the regions of the country that depend on agribusiness, such as the state of Minas Gerais (Natividade et al, 2017; Martins et al, 2018). Rising temperatures, as projected in future climate for the state of Minas Gerais (Santos et al, 2017b; Reboita et al, 2018) might alter the developmental rates (Florêncio et al, 2019), the phenological (i.e. timing of flowering and ripening), as well as physiological responses (Moriondo et al, 2015), changing the areas currently suitable for certain crops
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