Climate Penalty

Abstract

PDS 68: Outdoor air pollution, mortality and morbidity, Exhibition Hall (PDS), Ground floor, August 26, 2019, 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM Background: While an extensive body of literature finds that short- and long-term changes in temperature, fine particle levels and ozone levels adversely affect human health, there is limited evidence predicting the relationship between climate, air pollutants levels and human health. Methods: We first explored how ozone levels and PM2.5 levels responded to the changing temperature, and then conducted the survival analyses to examine the direct effect of temperature on mortality, as well as the indirect effect of temperature on mortality through PM2.5 and ozone, among the Medicare population in the Southeastern USA. Results: 1°C increase in summer temperature corresponds to 1.05 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration, and 2.90 ppb increase in ozone concentration. Climate-driven increases in ozone and PM2.5 levels, referred to as the “climate penalty”, has the potential to further increase the mortality. The Cox models adjusting for PM2.5 and ozone show that per 1°C increase in summer mean temperature was directly associated with 2.23% increase in mortality, and indirectly associated with 3.23% and 1.02% increases in mortality that were contributed by ozone and PM2.5, respectively. Conclusions: Climate change could have greater impacts on health outcomes through its effect on air pollutants levels. The implication is that reducing the air pollution levels can lower the adverse health effects of global warming.