Abstract
In their recent article published in the journal Scientific Reports, Büntgen and Di Cosmo have attempted to solve the historical mystery of the sudden Mongol withdrawal from Hungary after a year-long occupation. We cannot share the authors’ viewpoint that environmental circumstances contributed to the decision of the Mongols to abandon Hungary since the hypothesis lacks support from environmental, archaeological and historical evidence. Historical source material in particular suggests that the Mongols were able to settle and sustain their herds in Hungary as is clearly stated in a letter by King Bela IV to the pope. The Mongol army arrived in the kingdom at the end of a severe drought, and we present empirical evidence that the abundant rain in the spring of 1242 CE did not worsen but rather improved their prospects for sufficient food supplies and pasturage. The marshy terrain of the Hungarian Plain likely did not precipitate the Mongol withdrawal as the Mongol high command ultimately stationed their main forces around the marshy Volga Delta. In contrast to what Büntgen and Di Cosmo have suggested, we argue that the reasons for the sudden withdrawal cannot be explained largely by environmental factors.
Highlights
Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s recent article[1] in Scientific Reports (2016) attempts to tackle an important historical mystery by employing techniques from the burgeoning field of climate science
Historical sources indicate that survivors of the occupation were displaced as refugees and often forced to hide in mountainous regions for long periods[9]
The assertion made by Büntgen and Di Cosmo[1] that “reduced victuals for the army” caused the Mongol withdrawal, which implies that the famine which affected the local resident population was forcing the nomadic Mongols into a food crisis, is questionable
Summary
The authors, Büntgen and Di Cosmo, argue that a wet spell on the Hungarian plain in early 1242 reduced the nomadic Mongols’ military capability. The assertion made by Büntgen and Di Cosmo[1] that “reduced victuals for the army” caused the Mongol withdrawal, which implies that the famine which affected the local resident population was forcing the nomadic Mongols into a food crisis, is questionable This contradicts numerous sources written by observers across Eurasia which state that the Mongols relied primarily on their own herds for food[3,10]. The Hungarian and Polish Kingdoms became the two largest cattle exporters of Europe so that, by the sixteenth century, Hungary – primarily its lowland areas – regularly supplied herds of cattle that occasionally totalled over 200,000 Exporting cattle on this scale could only be sustained if millions of animals were continually grazing. Theories on the Mongol withdrawal based on ecological considerations tend to grossly downplay the carrying capacity of the Carpathian Basin, especially when we consider that the Mongols’ steppe horses were well-known for their endurance and ability to survive on little food[8]
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