Abstract
The expected increased share of renewables due to the ongoing energy transition may reduce the estimated potential mitigation effect of wood. Here, we estimated the climate change mitigation effect for five scenarios of wood products use in Europe applying dynamic substitution factors embracing a future energy mix with an increasing share of renewables in accordance with the emission reductions necessary to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. Our innovative modelling approach also included the elimination of eternal recycling loops, the inclusion of more realistic wood use cascading scenarios, and adoption of a more realistic marginal (ceteris paribus) substitution approach. Results show that the mitigation effect derived from material substitution is 33% lower in 2030 than previously predicted, and even 96% lower in 2100, showing its expiry date by the end of the century. Nevertheless, the mitigation effect of wood product use, in addition to mitigation by forests, may represent 3.3% of the European emission reduction targets by 2030.
Highlights
Introduction urStrong policies for rapid decarbonisation of the atmosphere are needed to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, as committed in the Paris Agreement (Rockström et al, 2017; Roe et al, 2019)
In line with earlier studies (Brunet-Navarro et al, 2017; Smyth et al, 2018), the climate change mitigation effect of wood products becomes bigger in scenarios where the use of long-lived products is increased or more wood products are consumed
We used a novel but more realistic approach to calculate the mitigation of alternative wood use scenarios by applying marginal substitution with dynamic substitution factors on the energy substitution, which inherently effects the material substitution
Summary
Introduction urStrong policies for rapid decarbonisation of the atmosphere are needed to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, as committed in the Paris Agreement (Rockström et al, 2017; Roe et al, 2019). New policies could promote wood use for new and refurbished buildings that will be required to accommodate the expected population increase (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017). Big uncertainties exists (Roe et al, 2019), the global greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of wood products was estimated at 0.54 Gt CO2e year-1 (Miner and Perez-Garcia, 2007). At European level, it was estimated at 0.04 Gt CO2e year-1 (Pilli et al, 2017). These sink effects only accounts for carbon stock increments
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