Climate-induced vulnerability and conservation strategies for coastal heritage sites in the southern Mediterranean Sea using integrated remote sensing and flood modeling

Abstract

Coastal heritage sites along the southern Mediterranean Sea confront immediate and severe threats from climate change, intensified by rising sea levels and ongoing shoreline erosion. This study presents a comprehensive approach to monitor and safeguard these significant locations, addressing the challenges posed by climate change. Leveraging high-resolution satellite data sources such as Pleiades imagery and Landsat data, shoreline detection was optimized using the Lee Filter and Canny edge detection techniques. Flood modeling and sea-level rise projections were incorporated to comprehensively assess dynamic coastal landscapes. Advanced methods, including the Prophet model, were employed for temperature predictions, showcasing good predictive accuracy. The results provide crucial insights into climate resilience and temperature forecasting amid rising temperatures associated with climate change. Alarming statistics include an annual erosion rate of −4.47 m/year and critical vulnerability to sea-level rise scenarios. In the extreme 4-m sea-level rise scenario, approximately 35 % of the total surface area (approximately 116.79 m2) is projected to be at risk of submersion, emphasizing the severe susceptibility of these sites to climate-induced sea-level rise. Even in the less severe 2-m scenario, around 24 % of the total area (approximately 80.79 m2) could potentially face submersion, posing a substantial threat to the ancient fortifications of the El Borj heritage site. This study underscores the critical role of preserving coastal heritage in addressing the challenges posed by climate change.