Climate-Induced Fire Hazard in Forests in the Volga Federal District of European Russia during 1992–2020

Abstract

This paper shows the relevance of the problem of fire hazard in the forests of the Volga Federal District (VFD) of European Russia. The Nesterov index and the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) are considered as indicators of fire hazard. The changes in climatic conditions in the VFD during 1955–2018 are shown; a trend towards warming and an increase in aridity in the study region were revealed. The repeatability of various fire hazard classes from May to September was calculated using the Nesterov method. It is shown that in July, the most dangerous situation was in the south of the VFD, where the repeatability of class IV fire hazard reached 27%. Using the HTC index, the degree of aridity of the district in the summer period was estimated. The frequency of the most arid conditions (HTC < 0.5) increases from the north to the south of the district, from 6% (Kirov Region) to 47% (Orenburg Region). Using the TT index, the potential thunderstorm danger in the VFD was assessed. With the help of the constructed maps, the hotspots of the most probable occurrence of thunderstorms were detected. The use of Rosstat data on the number of forest fires from 1992 to 2020 made it possible to consider the spatiotemporal distribution of forest fires in 14 administrative regions of the VFD. The distribution of the number of fires by the regions is shown depending on their forest cover and season. The peak of the number of fires was revealed in 2010, when the entire territory of the study region was covered by a severe drought, as a result of which the area of forests covered by fire increased many times over. In recent years (since 2017), there has been an increase in the area of burned forest due to the active phase of climate warming.