Abstract
When attempting to estimate the impacts of future climate change it is important to reflect on information gathered during the past. Understanding historical trends may also aid in the assessment of likely future agricultural and horticultural changes. The timing of agricultural activities, such as grape harvest dates, is known to be influenced by climate and weather. However, fewer studies have been carried out on grapevine yield and quality. In this paper an analysis is undertaken of long-term data from the period 1805–2010 on grapevine yield (hl/ha) and must sugar content (°Oe) and their relation to temperature. Monthly mean temperatures were obtained for the same time period. Multiple regression was used to relate the viticulture variables to temperature, and long-term trends were calculated. Overall, the observed trends over time are compatible with results from other long term studies. The findings confirm a relationship between yield, must sugar content and temperature data; increased temperatures were associated with higher yields and higher must sugar content. However, the potential increase in yield is currently limited by legislation, while must sugar content is likely to further increase with rising temperatures.
Highlights
Climate is one of the key factors influencing grapevine yield and quality [1,2,3,4]
Trends must be interpreted with caution in order to estimate how much of the increase in must yield and must sugar content can be attributed to changes in temperature
This study is the first report on long-term data sets of grapevine yield and must sugar content in Germany and confirms an upward trend in yield and must sugar content between 1805 and 2010
Summary
Climate is one of the key factors influencing grapevine yield and quality [1,2,3,4]. The timing of grape harvesting has been analysed in numerous publications [5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12] but studies using grapevine yield [13,14,15,16] or wine quality [2,17,18,19] have been studied to a lesser extent. These include management (pruning, choice of cultivars, soils, fertilisers etc.) as well as the economic, social and political background of the period of study [21,22]. Studies have emphasised [10,22] the importance of historical information in building the most robust model of climate reconstruction
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