Climate Impacts on Vector-Borne Disease Transmission: Global and Site-Specific Analyses

Abstract

The United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates an unprecedented global rise of 2.0°C by the year 2100. Such change can affect serious infectious diseases, including dengue fever and malaria. Both large-scale iterative modeling and site-specific microclimatic analysis of disease ecology are needed in tandem to address health effects of climate change scenarios. In two separate studies of dengue and malaria transmission, both General Circulation Models (GCMs) of global climate change and site-specific climate analysis are used respectively to investigated climate change impacts on dengue fever and malaria transmission risk. For the first study, analysis was conducted using the integrated MIASMA model to link GCM projections of climate with a vectorial capacity model of transmission. Preliminary results indicate climate conditions being more suitable to dengue transmission, given viral introduction. An expansion of potential epidemic risk both geographically and temporally is inferred from this study. In the malaria study, preliminary results from regression analysis show mosquito biting rates to correlate to ambient temperature and rainfall. Parasite development was also shown to relate to temperature and humidity. Further interdisciplinary cooperation and multi-scaled analytical approaches will be required to better assess the potential effect of climate change on malaria and dengue. J Epidemiol, 1996 ; 6 : S145-S148.