Abstract
The Gulf of Maine has recently experienced its warmest 5-year period (2015–2020) in the instrumental record. This warming was associated with a decline in the signature subarctic zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus. The temperature changes have also led to impacts on commercial species such as Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and American lobster (Homarus americanus) and protected species including Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) and northern right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). The recent period also saw a decline in Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) recruitment and an increase in novel harmful algal species, although these have not been attributed to the recent warming. Here, we use an ensemble of numerical ocean models to characterize expected ocean conditions in the middle of this century. Under the high CO2 emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the average temperature in the Gulf of Maine is expected to increase 1.1°C to 2.4°C relative to the 1976–2005 average. Surface salinity is expected to decrease, leading to enhanced water column stratification. These physical changes are likely to lead to additional declines in subarctic species including C. finmarchicus, American lobster, and Atlantic cod and an increase in temperate species. The ecosystem changes have already impacted human communities through altered delivery of ecosystem services derived from the marine environment. Continued warming is expected to lead to a loss of heritage, changes in culture, and the necessity for adaptation.
Highlights
The ecosystems in the Gulf of Maine have provided food, recreation, and economic opportunities for centuries
The recent warming has elevated concerns within the region about how marine resources and communities around the Gulf of Maine will fare as global warming progresses
These concerns prompted the creation of the Gulf of Maine 2050 International Symposium
Summary
The ecosystems in the Gulf of Maine have provided food, recreation, and economic opportunities for centuries. An increase in the incidence of epizootic shell disease is part of the explanation for the decline in American lobster in southern New England after 1999 (Wahle et al, 2009) Oyster pathogens such as Haplosporidium nelsoni and Perkinsus marinus that, respectively, cause the diseases “MSX” (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) and “Dermo” have become more prevalent in the Gulf of Maine as ocean temperatures have warmed (Marquis et al, 2015; Robledo et al, 2018). This pattern may explain the recent increase in cold-stun stranding events of Kemp’s Ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii; Pershing et al, 2018a; Griffin et al, 2019) All of these physical changes in the seasonal conditions of the Gulf of Maine affect the timing of recurring life events, known as phenology, of marine fauna, including foraging and growth conditions, and environmental cues that prompt breeding and migration (Staudinger et al, 2019). Both efforts used a common dynamical downscaling approach: force a high-resolution regional ocean model with output from global climate models
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