Climate impacts on high-intensity sapling mortality: Comparative study and future warnings for Larix kaempferi, Abies sachalinensis, and Picea glehnii

Abstract

Climate change profoundly affects plant viability and forest dynamics, creating uncertainty in future forest management. Post-planting, high-intensity sapling mortality may require costly replanting, disrupting plans, and risking forest management goals. Therefore, this study focused on high-intensity sapling mortality (mortality rates exceeding 30 %) in Larix kaempferi, Abies sachalinensis, and Picea glehnii planted in northern Japan attributed to summer drought. Utilizing a dataset spanning approximately three decades, the correlation between high-intensity mortality occurrence and climatic stress was explored employing a Bayesian approach. Additionally, the probability of high-intensity mortality occurrence by the end of this century was predicted based on two representative climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The predictive accuracy of high-intensity mortality occurrence probabilities exceeded 70 % after comprehensive consideration of climatic stress factors, thereby accentuating the robustness of the proposed model. These encompass the antecedent precipitation index (API), which serves as a soil drought indicator; 30-day mean daily maximum temperature (MaxTMP̅); 30-day mean daily total solar radiation (TSR̅); and day of year (DOY). All sapling species manifested a pronounced negative correlation between API and the probability of high-intensity mortality occurrence, whereas TSR̅ exhibited a positive impact on this probability. Additionally, MaxTMP̅ positively influenced this probability for L. kaempferi and A. sachalinensis. Delving into interspecific differentials, API exhibited the most pronounced impact on P. glehnii in comparison to the other two tree species, whereas TSR̅ exerted a substantial influence on A. sachalinensis and P. glehnii. The susceptibility to MaxTMP̅ was hierarchically ordered as L. kaempferi >A. sachalinensis >P. glehnii. DOY, used to assess phenological effects like leaf morphology, negatively affected the probability of high-intensity mortality occurrence exclusively for L. kaempferi. The median probability of high-intensity mortality occurrence in Hokkaido, calculated from the estimated probabilities across all regions of Hokkaido (encompassing non-forested areas but excluding remote islands), at a 1 km resolution, was 0.37 for L. kaempferi, 0.57 for A. sachalinensis, and 0.41 for P. glehnii under RCP2.6 by the century’s end. These probabilities have decreased in comparison to those observed in 2018–2022. In stark contrast, under RCP8.5, the probabilities soared to 0.91, 0.87, and 0.56, representing an increase of 2.12 times for L. kaempferi, 1.36 times for A. sachalinensis, and 1.14 times for P. glehnii in comparison to 2018–2022. Even the least affected species, P. glehnii, witnessed a increase in mortality probability. This study underscores the importance of forest management and adaptation to climate change.