Abstract
Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961–2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960–2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.
Highlights
Climate change is primarily associated with greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions
Comparison of the original 2.5◦ × 2.5◦ ERA-40 with PRECIS outputs shows that the model maintains all the features present in the original lower-resolution reanalysis
CONTROL-EC4 winds along the domain’s southern edge show a different flow than the ERA-40 reanalysis and CONTROL-E40 run, the latter better agreeing with Rio de La Plata Basin climatology
Summary
Climate change is primarily associated with greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. climate and surface vegetation have bidirectional interactions on different temporal and spatial scales. Changes in vegetation distribution and structure can influence climate. Land-use changes are among the primary forcings of climate change, both at regional and global scales [1, 2], among others. Climate changes can impact the current global vegetation distribution and will further modify it in the future [3]. Land-use change in central and southern South America, primarily in the Amazon and Rio de la Plata Basins, is a common practice, due to expanding agricultural activities resulting from the growing global demand for agricultural commodities, soybean, beef, and raw materials for biofuels, for example, sugar cane, corn, jatropha, and soy beans [4]. International commodity demand trends impact upon the region’s land-use through linkages that Nepstad et al [7] call “economic teleconnections.”
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