Abstract
Improved greenhouse gas (GHG) emission efficiency of production has been proposed as one of the biggest potential advantages of cultured meat over conventional livestock production systems. Comparisons with beef are typically highlighted, as it is a highly emissions intensive food product. In this study we present a more rigorous comparison of the potential climate impacts of cultured meat and cattle production than has previously been made. Warming impacts are evaluated using a simple climate model that simulates the different behaviours of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), rather than relying on carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) metrics. We compare the temperature impact of beef cattle and cultured meat production at all times to 1000 years in the future, using four synthetic meat GHG footprints currently available in the literature and three different beef production systems studied in an earlier climate modelling paper. Cattle systems are associated with the production of all three GHGs above, including significant emissions of CH4, while cultured meat emissions are almost entirely CO2 from energy generation. Under continuous high global consumption, cultured meat results in less warming than cattle initially, but this gap narrows in the long term and in some cases cattle production causes far less warming, as CH4 emissions do not accumulate, unlike CO2. We then model a decline in meat consumption to more sustainable levels following high consumption, and show that although cattle systems generally result in greater peak warming than cultured meat, the warming effect declines and stabilises under the new emission rates of cattle systems, while the CO2 based warming from cultured meat persists and accumulates even under reduced consumption, again overtaking cattle production in some scenarios. We conclude that cultured meat is not prima facie climatically superior to cattle production; its relative impact instead depends on the availability of decarbonised energy generation and the specific production systems that are realised.
Highlights
Cultured meat is an emerging technology in which animal muscle cells are produced through tissue culture in a controlled factory or laboratory environment, in contrast to traditional whole-animal livestock systems (Stephens et al, 2018)
Further greenhouse gas (GHG) associated with, but not directly emitted by, animal production include the loss of nitrous oxide from fertilizer application to grow their feed, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the conversion of land for pasture or feed production, and CO2 emissions resulting from fossil fuel based energy generation, for example in tractor fuels or the manufacture of fertilizers
While there is a very large range in emissions associated with different animal production systems, they are generally shown to emit significantly more per unit of food output than plant-based systems, and beef is typically highlighted as among the most emission intensive food products (Clune et al, 2017; Poore and Nemecek, 2018)
Summary
Cultured meat is an emerging technology in which animal muscle cells are produced through tissue culture in a controlled factory or laboratory environment, in contrast to traditional whole-animal livestock systems (Stephens et al, 2018). Reducing the environmental impacts of meat production, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is generally highlighted as a significant potential advantage of cultured meat (Tuomisto and Teixeira de Mattos, 2011; Post, 2012). Livestock production systems are associated with a number of GHG emissions, and have made a significant contribution to anthropogenic climate change (Reisinger and Clark, 2018). Further GHGs associated with, but not directly emitted by, animal production include the loss of nitrous oxide from fertilizer application to grow their feed, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the conversion of land for pasture or feed production, and CO2 emissions resulting from fossil fuel based energy generation, for example in tractor fuels or the manufacture of fertilizers (in addition to by-product CO2 formed in fertilizer production, Dawson and Hilton, 2011). While there is a very large range in emissions associated with different animal production systems, they are generally shown to emit significantly more per unit of food output (for example emissions per kg final product or per kg protein) than plant-based systems, and beef is typically highlighted as among the most emission intensive food products (Clune et al, 2017; Poore and Nemecek, 2018)
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