Abstract
Climate change will affect numerous crops in the future; however, perennial crops, such as tea, are particularly vulnerable. Climate change will also strongly influence fungal pathogens. Here, we predict how future climatic conditions will impact tea and its associated pathogens. We collected data on the three most important fungal pathogens of tea (Colletotrichum acutatum, Co. camelliae, and Exobasidium vexans) and then modeled distributions of tea and these fungal pathogens using current and projected climates. The models show that baseline tea-growing areas will become unsuitable for Camellia sinensis var. sinensis (15 to 32% loss) and C. sinensis var. assamica (32 to 34% loss) by 2050. Although new areas will become more suitable for tea cultivation, existing and potentially new fungal pathogens will present challenges in these areas, and they are already under other land-use regimes. In addition, future climatic scenarios suitable range of fungal species and tea suitable cultivation (respectively in CSS and CSA) growing areas are Co. acutatum (44.30%; 31.05%), Co. camelliae (13.10%; 10.70%), and E. vexans (10.20%; 11.90%). Protecting global tea cultivation requires innovative approaches that consider fungal genomics as part and parcel of plant pathology.
Highlights
Climatic changes can alter fungal survivability and infectivity as well as host susceptibility, leading to new disease outbreaks (Elad and Pertot, 2014; Cheng et al, 2019)
The effects of crop losses associated with pathogens and pests in major agricultural crops are better understood than those of commodity crops like tea (Chen et al, 2019; Savary et al, 2019), and among perennial crops tea is unique as its leaves are the product
We anticipate that climate change will render large areas unsuitable for the two dominant tea varieties, Camellia sinensis var. sinensis (CSS) and Camellia sinensis var. assamica (CSA)
Summary
Climatic changes can alter fungal survivability and infectivity as well as host susceptibility, leading to new disease outbreaks (Elad and Pertot, 2014; Cheng et al, 2019). They may facilitate the emergence of new virulent strains, a cause of significant concern for future epidemiological research (Garrett et al, 2006; Chen et al, 2019). Several studies on fungal diseases and climate change have revealed that the number of fungal diseases has increased alongside climate change, and it is increasingly recognized as a worldwide threat to important crops (Fisher et al, 2012). Tea as perennial plant might not escape fungal threats unless it is relocated
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