Climate fluctuations interact with local demography and resources to predict spatially dynamic adult sex ratios in a megaherbivore

Abstract

Adult sex ratio (ASR) is a fundamental concept in population and evolutionary biology, with implications for management and conservation. Although ASR is typically measured at the population‐level, local mate competition points toward spatial variation in ASR within populations, the causes of which remain unclear. Over five breeding seasons (2008–2012), we tracked the life histories and movements of all male and female feral horses known to be alive (n = 721) on Sable Island, Canada, to investigate determinants of spatially explicit ASRs. We show that local demographic traits (density, adult female abundance, and abundance of unpaired males (e.g. floaters, adult bachelors)) operate together with inter‐annual changes in weather to determine asymmetrical ASRs across time and space that deviate from the population‐level mean. While accounting for possible confounding effects of unpaired male movements and weather, we also show that local demographics are best explained by different responses to an environmental gradient (distance to surface water). Our results demonstrate that local demographic traits operate as mechanisms by which environmental gradients and weather can shape spatial variation in ASR within wild populations, which has important implications for predicting how opportunities for sexual selection may follow from changes in resource availability and climate.