Climate Feedback Variance and the Interaction of Aerosol Forcing and Feedbacks

Abstract

Abstract Aerosols can influence cloud radiative effects and, thus, may alter interpretation of how Earth’s radiative budget responds to climate forcing. Three different ensemble experiments from the same climate model with different greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios are used to analyze the role of aerosols in climate feedbacks and their spread across initial condition ensembles of transient climate simulations. The standard deviation of global feedback parameters across ensemble members is low, typically 0.02 W m−2 K−1. Feedbacks from high (8.5 W m−2) and moderate (4.5 W m−2) year 2100 forcing cases are nearly identical. An aerosol kernel is introduced to remove effects of aerosol cloud interactions that alias into cloud feedbacks. Adjusted cloud feedbacks indicate an “aerosol feedback” resulting from changes to climate that increase sea-salt emissions, mostly in the Southern Ocean. Ensemble simulations also indicate higher tropical cloud feedbacks with higher aerosol loading. These effects contribute to a difference in cloud feedbacks of nearly 50% between ensembles of the same model. These two effects are also seen in aquaplanet simulations with varying fixed drop number. Thus aerosols can be a significant modifier of cloud feedbacks, and different representations of aerosols and their interactions with clouds may contribute to multimodel spread in climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity in multimodel archives.